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Pick #1: Nico Collins – Houston Texans – More than 91.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards

Wide Receivers have chewed up this Baltimore secondary this season as Baltimore has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts (199 receptions, 2579 yards, 17 TDs). With Tank Dell joining Stefon Diggs on the sidelines, Collins will be the main attraction in this Houston passing attack.

Collins has seen double-digit targets in five of his ten starts this season and looks almost sure to get there again on Christmas afternoon. He’s averaging 16.2 yards per reception on turf this season, so with the matchup and expected workload both pointing in his favor, Houston will need a big game from their top remaining wideout. He’s yet to see a single carry on the season so the rushing yards don’t matter, but the target is the exact same as it is for receiving yards alone, so tack it on just in case.

 

 

Pick #2: Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – Fewer than 259.5 Passing Yards

It’s not fun picking against Patrick Mahomes, but 259.9 passing yards seems slightly optimistic. Mahomes has rather dramatic home vs. road splits this season, as he averages 263.3 passing yards per game in KC, but just 214.6 yards away from Arrowhead.

Looking at his career splits, Mahomes’ average passing yardage drops as the temperature drops. Temps for this game are expected to be in the upper 30s. Here’s the summary:

Greater than 80 degrees – 311.6 passing yards per game
61-80 – 296.8
41-60 – 278.5
21-40 – 259.5
<21 – 242.0

With his ankle still a discussion point (for some reason), Andy Reid will likely do all he can to get the ground game working in a game where Vegas set a total at a modest 43.5 points.

 

 

 

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