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Pick #1: Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears – More than 226.5 Passing Yards

Facing arguably the best offense in the NFL, this game script definitely favors a pass-heavy approach from the visiting Chicago Bears. We saw Caleb Williams check the ball 47 times for 340 yards in last weekend’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings, and he’s now thrown 30+ passes in four straight games. He has played one game indoors this season and was lights out against Indianapolis in that one, going 33 for 52 for 363 yards in their Week 3 loss.

With Aiden Hutchinson sidelined, one of the few areas of concern has been Detroit’s inability to get a consistent pass rush. That said, Detroit is allowing just 94.9 rushing yards per game this season, which is good for the 5th-best mark in the NFL. Williams has plenty of weapons in the passing game (including a former lion in D’Andre Swift), and Chicago will almost assuredly need 24+ points to have any chance of pulling off this upset. If Williams sees 35+ passing attempts once again, this number looks way too low.

Pick #2: Malik Nabers – New York Giants – More than 67.5 Receiving Yards

Let’s not sugar-coat this: Malik Nabers is upset. He has voiced his displeasure this week with the lack of targets early in games, and Brian Daboll responded by saying, “I’ve gotta do a better job getting the ball in his hands early”. I would expect, on a nationally televised Thanksgiving Day game versus the rival Dallas Cowboys, that the Giants do everything in their power to get their first-round pick involved early and often.

With Daniel Jones gone and Tommy DeVito banged up, it looks like it’ll finally be time for Drew Lock to take over behind center for the G-Men. Say what you want about Lock, but his throwing ability isn’t the thing holding him back. In fact, his presence may actually be a benefit to Nabers. This is one of the best matchups on the board for Nabers, and he roasted the Cowboys in their prior meeting this season, hauling in 12 passes for 115 yards. It seems reasonable to expect another double-digit target game for Nabers in this one, and that should be more than he needs to cruise past 68 yards receiving.