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Pick #1: Bryce Harper – Philadelphia Phillies – More than 0.5 Total Bases
Despite the .76x multiplier on this one, it stands out for me this evening. Harper has always punished right-handed pitchers, boasting a .364 wOBA and .250 ISO off of them in 2024. His success extends to his past encounters with Charlie Morton, where he has hit .407 (11 for 27) against him. Morton has struggled on the road with a 4.62 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 11 starts, and historically, he has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters, who have a .332 wOBA against him throughout his career. I’ll start this slip off with Harper picking up a hit and move on without hesitation.
Pick #2: David Peterson – New York Mets – More than 5.5 Hits Allowed
David Peterson has been terrific for the Mets this season. Through 15 starts, he owns an 8-1 record with a 2.85 ERA. However, the underlying numbers are signaling a regression is long overdue. Peterson owns a troubling 5.28 xERA, and his 6.96 K/9 is easily the lowest mark in his 5-year MLB career. This could be the spot for Peterson to run into trouble, as he’ll face an Arizona squad that is arguably the hottest offense in baseball lately.
During the month of August, Arizona owns an MLB-best .363 team wOBA and are tied with the New York Yankees for most home runs (43) during that span. Arizona also owns the third-best team wOBA (.332) against left-handed pitching in 2024, meaning this will be a very tough task for Peterson.
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