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Pick #1: Aaron Judge – New York Yankees – More than 2.5 Total Bases
Aaron Judge is poised for another massive night as he’s met with the perfect storm of favorable conditions. He is currently the best hitter on the planet, and he’s up against one of the least effective left-handed starters, Patrick Corbin. Corbin has struggled this season with a 5.73 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and a modest 17.3% strikeout rate.
Right-handed batters have exploited Corbin’s weaknesses, boasting a .379 wOBA against him. Judge owns an impressive .513 wOBA and an MLB-high .468 ISO against southpaws. I’ll take the over here without any hesitation.
Pick #2: Miles Mikolas – St. Louis Cardinals – Fewer than 3.5 Strikeouts
This is another “perfect storm” situation. Among qualified pitchers this season, Miles Mikolas owns an MLB-low 6.19 K/9 through 144.0 innings this season. Tonight, he’ll face a San Diego squad that has struck out the fewest times in baseball.
Further complicating things for Mikolas is the fear that he may not perform well enough to pitch deep into this game. He’s posted an unsightly 1-5 record and 5.94 ERA in 12 starts at Busch Stadium, and he has only posted more than three strikeouts once in his last eight starts.
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