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Pick #1: Kyle Gibson – St. Louis Cardinals – More than 5.5 Hits Allowed
Over four August starts, Kyle Gibson has posted a concerning 5.48 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, indicating control issues. This pattern is consistent with his recent performance, as he has walked at least two batters in 10 of his last 14 starts. The Padres’ approach further compounds this issue as they own the lowest team strikeout rate in MLB this season, suggesting they will work deep into counts and increase the chances of Gibson issuing walks.
Additionally, Gibson has struggled at Busch Stadium, with a troubling 27 walks in just 12 home starts this season. Olli Marmol has given Gibson a relatively long leash all season, giving him ample time to issue a pair of free passes.
Pick #2: Ryan Pepiot – Tampa Bay Rays – Fewer than 7.0 Strikeouts
Yes, the Seattle Mariners strike out a lot. Too much. With that said, this line is a bit too aggressive. Although Pepiot has a respectable 26.2% strikeout rate, he has not exceeded seven strikeouts in a game since June 26th and has only achieved more than seven strikeouts in four of his 19 starts this season. Additionally, Pepiot’s average outing lasts only about 5.18 innings, which may limit his opportunities to accumulate strikeouts. Eight strikeouts just seems too ambitious for him tonight.
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