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Pick #1: Gunnar Henderson – Baltimore Orioles – More than 1.5 Total Bases
Gunnar Henderson was hitless in the three-game series against the Blue Jays to start the week, but I’m not concerned. The emerging superstar has absolutely mashed right-handed pitching; posting a .302 average and .966 OPS on the season. Meanwhile, Zack Littell has surrendered a .336 wOBA to left-handed batters, and his velocity continues to decline slowly. I don’t put much stock on BvsP stats, but it’s hard to ignore that Henderson has roughed Littell in their previous meetings, going 5 for 10 with a double and a pair of home runs.
Pick #2: Ronel Blanco – Houston Astros – Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
This is not an easy matchup for Blanco, but I still expect him to surrender fewer than five hits this evening. Since June 1st, opponents have been hitting just .182 off of Blanco. That’s good for the third-lowest batting average against in MLB during that span. Fenway is far from a pitcher’s paradise, but neither is Minute Maid Park.
Blanco owns a 2.87 ERA and has allowed just 38 hits in 53.1 innings on the road this season. He might get in trouble a time or two tonight, but it typically comes via the form of walks and home runs (44.7% fly-ball rate). His hard-hit rate sits at a career low of 32.5%, and he has only allowed 5+ hits in four of his last 15 starts.
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