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Pick #1: Pablo Lopez – Minnesota Twins – Fewer than 5.5 Hits Allowed
It’s been a rough start to the 2024 season for Pablo Lopez. However, the 28-year-old looks to finally have turned the corner and is ready for a strong finish. Over the last 30 days, his 2.48 xFIP is the third-best mark in MLB, trailing only Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes. His 3.15 xFIP on the season suggests that his 4.86 ERA has simply been more bad luck than more pitching. He will face a Detroit team in the bottom-third of the league in strikeouts (23.2%) and Comerica Park has been one of the more pitcher-friendly venues since it opened. Lopez has allowed five or fewer hits in six of his last eight starts.
Pick #2: Alex Burleson – St. Louis Cardinals – More than 1.5 Total Bases
Burleson has hit the ball very well this season in two different situations; 1) At Busch Stadium (.879 OPS), and 2) Against right-handed pitching (.921 OPS). Tonight, he gets them both as he has a home matchup against MacKenzie Gore awaiting him. Gore has pitched fairly well for the Nationals this season, but left-handed batters have posted a .369 wOBA against him. Burleson looks to have found a home in the two-hole for the Red Birds and should find plenty of chances for some damage.
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