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Pick #1: Ian Happ – Chicago Cubs – More than 0.5 Total Bases
Happ has been held in check to start this series in the desert, but he still owns an OPS of over .900 over the last 30 days. Happ has made a living against right-handed pitching, and he’s continued that success this season. Against righties, he owns a .353 wOBA and 129 wRC+. Giving this play its added appeal is the fact that Happ’s 11.4 wFB total is in the top 20 of MLB, and very few pitchers in MLB throw more heaters than Brandon Pfaadt (56.2% FB%). With Pfaadt allowing a .333 wOBA to left-handers, Happ looks ready to do some damage this afternoon at Wrigley Field (where he also thrives).
Pick 2: Miles Mikolas – St. Louis Cardinals – Less than 4 Strikeouts
Since June 1st, no pitcher in MLB has a lower strikeout rate than Mikolas at just 5.13 K/9. Mikolas has also been knocked around pretty badly by these Atlanta hitters in his career. This year, Mikolas has started 20 games but has managed to surpass four strikeouts in only seven of those outings. His season-high mark stands at just six strikeouts, reflecting his struggles to rack up strikeouts with any consistency. With Atlanta very hungry to wrap up this series with a “W”, I expect Mikolas to have a tough time on the mound this afternoon.
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