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Jorge Polanco LESS THAN 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Jorge Polanco has fallen short of this line in 6 of his last 10 games, and the matchup today doesn’t do him any favors. He’ll be facing Cal Quantrill, a pitcher who’s had his number throughout their career head-to-head—Polanco is 0-for-19 with five strikeouts against him. Instead of targeting total bases, I prefer this line given the context, especially considering Polanco has managed just 1 RBI over his last 7 games. With the tough matchup and recent production dip, this feels like the sharper play.

Chris Sale MORE THAN 5.5 Strikeouts

Chris Sale has looked sharp to start the season, going over this strikeout line in 3 of his 5 starts while averaging 6.4 Ks per game. He’s bringing the heat with a strong 29.1% strikeout rate and an elite 78% whiff rate—proof that his stuff is as nasty as ever. Historically, he’s also had great success against the current Diamondbacks lineup, posting an impressive 34% strikeout rate against them. With the way he’s been missing bats and his strong track record versus this roster, this looks like a great spot for Sale to rack up the punchouts once again.