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Yordan Alvarez LESS THAN 1.5 Total Bases

Yordan Alvarez has gotten off to a slow start this season, hitting just .206 and falling short of this line in 70% of his games. His struggles extend to his career numbers against Kevin Gausman, where he’s 0-for-10 with a walk and a staggering 7 strikeouts. Between the cold bat to start the year and a tough personal history against today’s opposing pitcher, this number feels a bit too ambitious for Alvarez in this spot.

Kevin Gausman MORE THAN 4.5 Strikeouts

Gausman has an absolutely dominant track record against this Astros lineup, having faced them 82 times in his career and holding them to a .177 batting average. Even more impressive—he’s racked up 41 strikeouts to just 3 walks in those matchups, which translates to an eye-popping 50% strikeout rate. While Houston has a respectable 23.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and Gausman himself is carrying a solid 22% K rate, the historical success he’s had against these specific hitters makes this number incredibly appealing.