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Mike Trout LESS THAN 1.5 Total Bases

Trout has had a tough start to the season, batting just .171 and falling short of this line in 13 of his first 20 games. His recent form hasn’t been much better, as he’s gone over this number just once in his last seven outings. While he faces an aging Justin Verlander in this matchup, history hasn’t been on Trout’s side — he’s just 5 for 43 in his career against the veteran right-hander. Given his early-season struggles at the plate and a difficult historical matchup, this sets up as a strong spot to back the under on the superstar slugger.

Charlie Morton MORE THAN 4.5 Hits Allowed

Morton has allowed 5 or more hits in 3 of his 4 starts this season and currently carries a bloated 1.91 WHIP, indicating he’s been letting plenty of runners reach base. Even more concerning, opposing hitters are making solid contact consistently, with a hard-hit rate north of 52%. He’ll face a Reds lineup that’s hitting .246 against right-handed pitching this season — a respectable mark that suggests they should be able to put the ball in play effectively here. Given Morton’s recent struggles and the Reds’ ability to make contact, I really like the over in this spot.