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Josh Giddey LESS THAN 9.5 Assists

While Giddey has seen a bit of an uptick in assists recently, the bigger picture still tells a different story. Over the course of the season, he’s stayed under this line in 76% of games, averaging fewer than 7.2 assists per outing. Even over his last 20 games, he’s only hit this mark half the time. Now he faces a Miami team known for turning up the intensity when it matters most — the Heat consistently rise to the occasion in the playoffs and can hang tough with anyone. Given the matchup and Giddey’s overall trends, this number just feels a bit too ambitious.

Spencer Dinwiddie MORE THAN 15.5 Points and Assists

Dinwiddie has stepped up in a big way for the Mavericks, going over this line in 13 of his last 16 games — a stretch that began shortly after Kyrie’s injury. With increased responsibility as one of the team’s primary ball handlers, his usage has seen a noticeable spike, and he’s making the most of it. He’s also had the Kings’ number this season, clearing this line in all three matchups while averaging over 25 combined points and assists. With his expanded role and a favorable history against Sacramento, this looks like another strong spot for Dinwiddie to deliver.