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Jason Tatum LESS THAN 35.5 Points + Assists

Tatum has gone under this line in 62% of his games this season, with an average of just over 33 points and assists per game. When facing the Heat, he’s struggled even more, failing to hit this number in 10 consecutive matchups, including in the playoffs. During this stretch, he’s averaged just 28.5 points and assists per game against them. The Heat have consistently focused on limiting Tatum’s impact, and I expect them to continue to prioritize shutting him down, forcing other players to step up. Given this trend and the defensive game plan, this line feels like a tough one for Tatum to clear in this matchup.

Nikola Jokic LESS THAN 28.5 Points

Jokic has gone under this line in 55% of his games this season, with a solid average of just under 29 points per game, making this line pretty typical for him. However, over his last 28 games, he has failed to surpass this mark in 19 of them. In fact, during their most recent matchup against the Lakers, he scored a modest 12 points. The Lakers are known for their defensive strategy of limiting Jokic’s scoring and making other players step up, and I expect them to employ a similar approach here. With that in mind, this number seems a bit too high for Jokic to clear in this particular matchup.