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Pick #1: Jahmyr Gibbs – Detroit Lions – More than 2.5 Receptions

Gibbs enters this pivotable battle with the Buffalo Bills owning 34 receptions for 312 yards on the season. He snagged six balls last week in their big win over the Green Bay Packers and has now seen 3+ targets in four of the last five games, and is averaging three receptions per game at Ford Field.

On Sunday afternoon, the matchup is about as good as he can ask for. He’ll face a Buffalo defense that has been shredded through the air by opposing running backs this season. They’ve allowed the 2nd-most receptions (74), the most targets (95), and the third-most yardage (579). I expect him to see 5+ targets in this potential shootout, and given his 81.9% completion rate on targets, this could be a sweet-free play.

Pick #2: Josh Downs – Indianapolis Colts – Fewer than 4.5 Receptions

Downs has been rock solid this season for Indy, but this is a tough matchup. This is forecasted to be a windy game in the Mile High City, and Denver’s defense is well-rested and has been solid against the pass all season (aside from the MNF game two weeks ago). Anthony Richardson has still struggled to become a reliable passer and owns an ugly 47.4% completion percentage on the road this season.

Downs leads the club with 53 receptions, but he’s far from their only receiving weapon, as Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce still see plenty of attention whenever the Colts do trust Richardson to let it rip. Downs posted just three receptions for 27 yards the last time we saw him (against Detroit three weeks ago) and still carries a “Q” tag into this game (though he is more probable than questionable). Asking for five receptions in a game after several weeks off, while still potentially limited with a shoulder injury against a solid defense seems like a tall task. I expect fewer than five receptions in this one.