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Pick #1: Josh Jacobs – Green Bay Packers – Fewer than 16.5 Rushing Attempts

Detroit’s defense has been rock solid against the run this season, allowing only 1137 yards on a league-low 257 attempts. The Lions have also forced teams to pass at the second-highest rate in the NFL (64.4%), making it more likely that Green Bay will have to air it out rather than commit to the run, especially if they fall behind early. This shift toward the passing game will naturally reduce the volume of carries for Jacobs.

In Green Bay’s home loss to Detroit last month, Jacobs received just 13 carries despite some success on the ground. With the Packers entering this matchup as 3.5-point underdogs, they could find themselves playing from behind, which typically limits rushing attempts. In fact, Jacobs has averaged only 12.67 carries per game in Green Bay’s three losses this season. I will build these two plays considering the most likely game script – Green Bay needs to keep up with Detroit’s lethal offense.

Pick #2: David Montgomery – Detroit Lions – More than 59.5 Rushing Yards

Montgomery looked healthy last week, and we may now see fellow RB Jamyhr Gibbs in a bit of trouble with Dan Campbell after posting a TikTok video with the Lion’s play sheet on the whiteboard behind him (though Campbell claims that won’t be the case… who knows though). Montgomery racked up 88 carries on 21 yards in that Thanksgiving Day thriller over Chicago. This line may be a bit deflated due to that 8-carry, 37-yard outing in Indy, but remember that Montgomery was forced out of that contest early.

Montgomery turned his 17 carries into 73 yards in Lambeau Field in their first meeting and I’d expect him to see a similar workload on TNF. He easily surpassed this number in both games against the Packers last season also; racking 121 yards on 32 carries in GB, and 71 yards on 15 carries at Ford Field.