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Pick #1: C.J. Ogbunna – Buffalo Bulls – More than 201.5 passing yards

Ogbonna has exceeded this total in three straight games, averaging 258.7 passing yards per game during that stretch. Additionally, Ball State has struggled significantly with pass defense, ranking 129th out of all FBS teams, allowing an alarming average of 291.9 passing yards per game.

With the game expected to stay competitive throughout, Coach Lembo will likely rely on Ognonna to stay involved in the passing game for all four quarters. I am locking in this play early before the target starts to creep higher.

Pick #2: Marion Lukes – Central Michigan Chippewas – Fewer than 69.5 Rushing Yards

Marion Lukes is having a solid senior season in Mount Pleasant, but I expect him to find some tough sledding tonight as the Chippewas head to Toledo. Toledo badly needs a win tonight to stay in the hint for the MAC Conference title, and they’ve been rock solid against the run all season as they’ve allowed just 136.3 rushing yards against per game.

While Lukes is the lead back for Central Michigan, he does surrender several carries per game to B.J. Harris. In a similar type of meeting (vs. Miami of Ohio) two weeks ago, Lukes was completely held in check as he managed just 25 yards on 15 carries. CMU is essentially playing without a starting quarterback, as Jaydn Glasser and Tyler Jefferson have been hesitant to put the ball in the air. They do, however, also steal away some rushing opportunities from Lukes.

This game has the potential to get away from CMU in a hurry tonight if they can’t slow down the Toledo offense, forcing Jim McElwain to try and make something work in his passing game.