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Pick #1: Gunnar Henderson – Baltimore Orioles – More than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

34-year-old Seth Lugo had, arguably, the best season of his long career in 2024. However, he seemed to run out of steam as the season progressed. The southpaw posted a 2.48 ERA prior to the All-Star break, but saw this fall to a 3.84 ERA and 20.6% strikeout rate after the break.

Meanwhile, Gunnar Henderson is in the midst of a mini-slump, but he’s too good to stay quiet for long. During the regular season, Henderson posted a .893 OPS with 37 HRs and 92 RBIs. He also crushed the ball all season at Camden Yards, posting a .909 OPS with 23 Home Runs and 54 RBIs. Henderson has handled the bat very well against left-handed pitching (.358 wOBA) and will be counted on to set the plate this afternoon as the O’s leadoff hitter.

 

 

Pick #2: Hunter Brown – Houston Astros – More than 4.0 Hits Allowed

Hunter Brown has been terrific down the stretch for the Astros, but this line still seems a bit aggressive. We saw the Houston bullpen get plenty of action yesterday after Framber Valdez failed to get through five innings. This means Brown will see a healthy leash against a pesky Detroit lineup that racked up ten hits on Tuesday afternoon.

Brown enters his first postseason start with some drastic home vs. road splits. He posted a 2.78 ERA in 20 evening starts but an ugly 5.19 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 daytime starts. Brown has allowed at least four hits in ten of his last 14 starts. He is a great young pitcher, but asking for less than four hits against is a tall task, given it’s his first postseason start.

 

 

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