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Pick #1: Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers – More than 17.5 Pitching Outs

Skubal should be the AL Cy Young winner this season and will take the mound for his first-ever playoff start today in Houston. The left-hander has been nearly unhittable all season, but he was particularly nasty during Detroit’s amazing finish to the season. Skubal owned a 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings during the month of September.

Skubal has faced this Houston lineup twice this season, pitching 6.1 innings in both outings. He’s pitched at least six innings in 13 of his last 16 starts. Detroit’s bullpen has been solid all season, but unless Skubal is ineffective, former Astros manager A.J. Hinch figures to give his ace a long leash to save the pen for the potential final two games of this 3-game series.

Pick #2: Jackson Merrill – San Diego Padres – More than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Merrill has made a strong case for NL Rookie of the Year (though I expect Paul Skenes to be the winner), and this looks like a nice spot for him to start his MLB Post-Season career. We still aren’t certain who the Braves will roll out as their starting pitcher, but regardless of their decision, Merrill seems like a fine option. Byrce Edler seems the most likely at the time of this writing, and Merrill has posted a .311 average and .891 OPS against right-handed pitching. He finished the season on fire, posting a .307 average and .940 OPS since the beginning of August. The Padres have the highest implied team total on the board today, and I expect Merrill to get involved in some of the damage.