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Pick #1: Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers – Fewer than 4.5 Hits Allowed

As we hit the final week of the regular season, motivation is obviously a major team/individual factor. With that in mind, Tarik Skubal is someone I want to target this afternoon. Not only have the Tigers clawed their way back into the wild card race, but Skubal can all but lock up the AL Cy Young award with another strong outing here. The Tiger’s Ace owns a fantastic 9-1 record to go along with a 2.13 ERA and 110 K’s in 93 innings at Comerica Park. Today, he’ll face a Tampa team who he mowed down in their only previous meeting this season: six scoreless innings with 9 K’s.

Skubal has given up four or fewer hits against in six of his last eight games. In 15 home starts, he’s given up 4 or fewer hits on ten occasions. Tampa Bay has cooled off at the plate down the stretch and have only scored more than 4 runs in a game once over their last 14 games. I expect Skubal to seal up his Cy Young award with yet another impressive outing here.

 

Pick #2: Matt Olson – Atlanta Braves – More than 1.5 Total Bases

Once again factoring motivation, we have essentially our first playoff series of the season this week as the Mets travel to Atlanta for a three-game set with the Braves. Luis Severino will take the bump for the Mets, and he’s been solid this season. However, his two weaknesses are road games (4.80 ERA) and left-handed batters (.327 wOBA against). That obviously sets up well for Matt Olson, who has come alive lately.

Olson owns a career .373 wOBA against right-handed pitching and will step into the batter’s box tonight having picked up multiple hits in four of his last five games. He is now sporting a 1.054 OPS with four home runs and 21 RBIs during the month of September and has had success against Severino in their previous battles (4 for 10 with four walks). Atlanta will need his bat to stay hot if they want to extend their season into October.

 

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