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Pick #1: William Contreras – Milwaukee Brewers – More than 1.5 Total Bases

Miles Mikolas has been up-and-down this season, and Milwaukee will be pleased to catch him on a significant down-swing. Mikolas holds an ugly 6.66 ERA and 1.60 WHIP since the All-Star break and he’s been dreadful at home all season, posting a 6.53 ERA over 11 home starts. Mikolas does not appear to be fooling anyone at the plate at this point, as noted by his 16.6% strikeout rate, which has tied him for last among all qualified pitchers in MLB.

Meanwhile, Contreras has picked up multiple hits in each of the first two games of this series and has a track record of success against Mikolas, going 6 for 12 off of the right-hander. Contreras enters today’s game rocking a 1.127 OPS in almost 70 at-bats during the month of August and should keep things rolling again in this matinee game at Busch Stadium. I’ll grab this at 1.07x.

Pick #2: Spencer Schwellenbach – Atlanta Braves – More than 6.5 Strikeouts

After dominating the minor leagues for 1.5 seasons, Schwellenbach has continued his success after his call-up to the big club. He has been rock solid over 75.2 innings in the big leagues, posting a respectable 4.04 ERA and a strong 1.07 WHIP. He owns a 2.17 xFIP since the all-star break, behind only teammate Chris Sale in MLB in that time frame. Schwellenbach’s success has much to do with his ability to miss bats, as he owns 12.77 K/9 in the second half and a 27.5% K-rate on the season. He pitched very well against the Phillies in their only previous meeting and has picked up at least seven strikeouts in five straight starts.

 

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