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Pick #1: Bryan Reynolds – Pittsburgh Pirates – Higher than 1.5 Total Bases
The switch-hitting Pirates slugger was held in check last night, but he has been on fire since the start of June. During that stretch, he owns a .331 average with 10 home runs and 26 RBIs in just 38 games. He will face Chris Flexen this evening who has been, for the lack of a better phrase, a dumpster fire for three straight seasons.
Left-handed batters have brutalized Flexen for a .400 wOBA and have uncorked 11 home runs in just 35.2 innings in 2024. Reynolds owns a .354 wOBA and 135 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season Reynolds will slide over to bat lefty in this one and should do plenty of damage from the #2 hole in the Pittsburgh lineup.
Pick #2: Seth Lugo – Kansas City Royals – Fewer than 5.5 Hits Allowed
Pitching in Fenway is not necessarily ideal, but Seth Lugo has been one of the best stories of the first half of the MLB season. He will look to finish strong this afternoon in his last start before the ASB. Lugo has been nearly unhittable on the road this season, posting a 7-1 record to go along with a 2.03 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 66.2 innings of work.
He has held opposing hitters to a .196 average in those games and owns a 24.1% K% in those games as well. Lugo has allowed five or fewer hits against in each of his last three starts, and while Boston is undoubtedly dangerous, this will be the first time nearly all of these Boston hitters get a look at the veteran right-hander.
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